Global Warming The Prisoners Dilemma

Assume for this post that the world is going to end in say 100 years if nothing is done about global warming. Lets also assume that Australia’s contribution to green house gasses is 1%

This is very similar to The Prisoners Dilemma game theory see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma

As an individual player there are 4 possible senarios.

1. No one does anything about global warming

2. Australia combats global warming and the rest of the world does nothing

3. The rest of the combats global warming and we do nothing.

4. Everyone combats global warming.

Lets look at the case when the world does nothing. Our best option is to also do nothing. We wear no cost and the world still ends in 100 years regardless of what we do.

Lets look at the case when the everyone else combats global warming. Our best option is to do nothing. The world is still saved and we prosper as we wear none of the cost.

So it actually doesn’t matter what the rest of the world does we are always better off doing nothing about global warming.

Every rational individual playing the game that is only interested in maximizing their outcome will always defect. ( In this case defecting is ignoring climate change ) But if everyone defects then the world ends.

This assumes you believe what the “experts” tells you about global warming which I don’t but the dilemma still stands since everyone else does

The dilemma also applies to runs on banks as shown recently by Indy Mac in the US.

If everyone keeps their money in the bank, it doesn’t collapse completely and everyone only looses a bit of money.

If everyone pulls their money out of the bank, it collapses completely and the greatest amount of money is lost.

If everyone else keeps there money in the bank you should pull your money out. They loose a little bit and you loose none. If everyone is going to pull their money out of the bank then you are going to get more money by doing the same. The sooner the better.

As an individual you are always better off taking your money out of the bank regardless of what the other players do. BUT the optimal outcome is if no one pulls their money out of the bank.

Amazing that cooperation happens at all

Why do people use Web Apps?

I’ve been thinking for a while why people might prefer web apps to desktop ones. I still think Web 2.0 is a lot less sucsessful then what those in Silicon Valley think.

Available from any computer.

You can jump on a computer at an internet cafe and check your email or check your Facebook at work.

No need to install or update software.

Just open a link from a friend and in under a minute you can be using a new social networking application.

Simpler and easier to learn then traditional applications.

Just jump into a new application. Nothing new to learn.

Safe

You don’t have to worry about downloading unsafe executables that may damage your computer.

Available from any computer.

I see the benefit of web mail being accessible from any computer but why then do users prefer webmail to a traditional mail client when they are on their local computer. Webmail is a clunky hack of an interface trying to deliver a mail client in what should be a document reader. Until very recently you couldn’t right click in webmail, no drag and drop. GMail users are so excited by the new ability to drag and drop in gmail. Something that has worked on the desktop for a decade. Not to mention the 1 second delay between all user interface actions.

No need to install or update software.

I think this is a failure of the desktop and should be addressed there instead of trying to move software into the browser. Software installation is too hard and too dangerous for simply trying out an app someone sent you as a link. This could easily be fixed.

Simpler and easier to learn then traditional applications.

I think this is really a myth. People percieve web applications as simpler and easier to learn. They don’t see web apps as applications. Instead they start using them with the mindset that they are simple web pages so must be easy. Too often then don’t give traditional applications a chance as they see them as being too complex and are very quick to just throw their hands up and give up on them.

Safe

It is true that generally you don’t have to worry about malicious software in web apps. I think it’s quite reasonable to run new unknown applications in a sandbox until your happy for them to access your whole computer. You shouldn’t however need to embed you application in a web browser to achieve it.

Web browsers are interfaces to display web pages. They are being moulded into something more because the desktop is lacking. They are not the ideal interface for everything, they are a hack of a workaround until the desktop catches up.